The Western Sahara Conflict: A Cornerstone of Algeria’s Military Influence?
The enduring conflict in Western Sahara has far-reaching implications for the geopolitical landscape of North Africa. In a recent analysis, François Soudan, editor-in-chief of Jeune Afrique, argues that the ongoing dispute plays a pivotal role in maintaining the Algerian military’s grip on power.
Soudan’s argument hinges on the historical context of the conflict. Since Algeria’s independence in 1962, the military has positioned itself as the guardian of national sovereignty, often using external threats to justify its influence. The unresolved status of Western Sahara, a territory claimed by both Morocco and the Polisario Front (supported by Algeria), provides a convenient narrative of an external enemy and a justification for a strong military presence.
This narrative has allowed the Algerian military to secure significant political and economic power. The defense budget consistently receives a substantial portion of national resources, even amidst economic challenges. This prioritization of military spending reinforces the institution’s influence and ensures its continued dominance in Algerian society.
However, the situation is far from static. The international community is increasingly recognizing Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara as a viable path to resolution. This shift in perspective challenges Algeria’s long-held stance and potentially undermines the military’s narrative of an external threat.
Furthermore, Algeria’s internal dynamics are also in flux. The Hirak protest movement, which emerged in 2019, demonstrated a growing desire for democratic reforms and a reduction in military influence. While the movement has faced significant repression, it highlights the evolving aspirations of the Algerian people.
The future of the Western Sahara conflict remains uncertain. However, its resolution, or lack thereof, will have profound implications for Algeria. A negotiated settlement could pave the way for a recalibration of the military’s role in society, potentially leading to greater civilian oversight and democratic reforms. Conversely, continued stalemate risks further entrenching the military’s power, potentially hindering Algeria’s democratic development and economic progress.
The international community has a crucial role to play in encouraging a peaceful and lasting resolution to the Western Sahara conflict. By supporting dialogue and compromise, the international community can contribute to a more stable and prosperous future for the entire region, one where the military’s influence is determined by genuine security needs rather than geopolitical narratives.
